Tuesday, October 4, 2011

The 600 Save Closer

By Mickey Morgan

The History of the Save

The Save didn't become an official Major League Baseball (MLB) statistic until 1969. Prior to the 1970s, starting pitchers typically finished games. When they were not able to finish a game, managers had to call on a group of "has-beens" they kept in the bullpen. Pitchers with unusual styles, like the knuckleballer Hoyt Wilhelm, made a living coming out of the bullpen. In the '70s, managers began looking for pitchers who could be counted on to get a few crucial outs toward the end of the game. The great Yankees teams of the late '70s and early '80s relied on one of the best relievers; Hall of Famer Rich "Goose" Gossage. Gossage came up a pure reliever with the Chicago White Sox, but hit his prime with the Yankees. Fans began to pay attention to saves, which relievers earned by entering a game with a slim lead and preserving the victory. 

By the 1980s, relief pitchers like Dan Quisenberry of the Royals, Bruce Sutter with the Cubs and Cardinals and Dennis Eckersley with the Athletics became stars in their own right. The last two are in the Baseball Hall of Fame. The reliever role evolved toward increased specialization. The era of the iron-man closer coming in during the 7th inning was short-lived. 

By the late '80s, closers were being asked to get only three outs. From 1969 through 1985, one-inning saves made up only 21% of all saves. By 1991, the one-inning save jumped to over 40% of all saves. In 1992, more than half the saves were one-inning saves. In 1999, it was more than 70%. Now in 2011 the one-inning save reached the highest rate ever, an incredible 85.3%.

What is a Save in Baseball?

In MLB, a pitcher is credited with a save when he meets all four of the following conditions:

1. He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team; 
2. He is not the winning pitcher; 
3. He is credited with at least ⅓ of an inning pitched; and 
4. He satisfies one of the following conditions: 

  1. He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one  inning 
  2. He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck 
  3. He pitches for at least three innings

The One-Inning Save Specialist

The New York Yankees signed Rivera in 1990 and was pegged as a starting pitcher. He progressed up the minor-league ladder without any fanfare. He had the normal starter's repertoire; a straight fastball with a top velocity of 91 or 92 mph, a slider and a change-up. In 1995, Yankees General Manager Gene Michael brought him from the Columbus Clippers to the parent club, and Rivera compiled average numbers, but he was sent back to the minors. The team was hoping to acquire pitcher David Wells from the Detroit Tigers, and Rivera was a small part of the trade bait. Sometimes the trades you don't make are better than the ones you do.

Rivera's unexpected performance in the 1995 playoffs convinced management that he could be a more powerful weapon coming out of the bullpen than he could as a starter. In 5 1/3 innings he gave up 3 hits, one walk, 8 strikeouts and no runs. The Yankees already had a dominant closer, John Wetteland, and as Rivera continued demonstrated his shill, Manager Joe Torre made him Wetteland's setup man. In 1996 if the Yankees were ahead after six innings, the game was effectively over, because Rivera would pitch the seventh and eighth and Wetteland would pitch the ninth. Rivera won eight games and lost three with an impressive ERA of 2.09. In 107 2/3 innings he struck out 130 batters while giving up 73 hits. (The standard for excellence is striking out one batter and surrendering no more than one hit per inning). Rivera developed the pitch that made him great; a sharp-breaking, mid-90s mile per hour (mph) cut fastball.

Enter Sandman

In the summer of 1999, the Yankee Stadium scoreboard production staff began playing the song "Enter Sandman" by heavy metal band Metallica as Rivera's entrance music. Staff members selected the song after witnessing in the previous year's World Series how enthusiastically San Diego fans reacted to closer Trevor Hoffman entering games accompanied by AC/DC's "Hells Bells". Although Rivera was indifferent about his entrance music, "Enter Sandman" soon became as much a part of his identity as a closer as his cutter did.

3,000 Hits Verses 600 Saves

Mariano's low-key approach of a significant Major League record and the most important for his position gets very little press. Derek Jeter's 3,000 hit watch lasted 2 months and then when he got to 3,000 the congratulation messages lasted for several more weeks.

Maybe it's because there hasn't been that much interest in tracking saves as compared to hits or wins or home runs. Every day players have a benchmark; 3,000 hits. What is the benchmark for a closer? Is it 600 saves? So, in the past 42 years only two closers have accumulated 600 saves. I would say that is where the current benchmark should be. Keeping in mind that the number three all-time saves leader is Lee Smith (retired) at 478 and the closest active closer is Francisco Cordero at 323. At age 36, it's unlikely he will get another 300 saves in his career. 
Closers don't have 15 year careers any longer. Another major factor is that a closer has to play for a winning team for that long and also has to avoid serious injuries throughout his career.
It comes down to judging 3,000 hits vs. the all-time saves leader. It's far more impressive to be the all-time leader in something. The all-time hit leader is Pete Rose. The all-time wins leader is Cy Young. The all-time homerun leader is Barry Bonds. The all-time saves leader is Mariano Rivera.

There are 28 players the 3,000 hits club, 24 pitchers in the 300 wins club, and 25 players the 500 home runs club. However, there are only 2 closers in the 600 saves club.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that no one will have more saves than Rivera. Even at age 41, I haven't heard anything about retirement. So who knows what his final total will be, but it will rank right up there with DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak as a record that may never be broken.

Is 600 Saves a Big Deal?

So far, during Mariano Rivera's career he has a 75-57 record with 8 seasons of 40 plus saves (39 in 2008), including 2 50 plus save seasons. He led the major leagues in saves in 1999, 2001, and 2004. In 1208 innings pitched he has recorded 1107 strikeouts with only 274 walks and a 2.22 ERA. He has an ERA Plus of 205 (a major league record) and WHIP of.999. During Trevor Hoffman's career he had a 61-75 record with 601 saves a 2.87 ERA and an ERA Plus of 141, and a WHIP of 1.06.

Mariano Rivera with his 602nd save is now the all-time leader in career saves. As a Yankee fan, I watch the Yankee games on the YES Network, and for the past several weeks I've listened to the Yankee announcers tell us that Mariano Rivera is the best closer in the history of MLB. Now, in fact he probably is, but what was being completely ignored is that he wasn't the first MLB closer to reach 600 saves. That milestone was first accomplished last year by Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman appeared in 1,035 with no starts, while Rivera appeared in 1,038 games with 10 starts. With Rivera's post season record (42 saves) and considering he will probably add a lot more saves before he is done, I believe the case for him to be the best is a solid one. But to completely ignore the fact that Hoffman had already accomplished what Rivera was trying to duplicate was ridiculous.

Like Jim Thome's march to 600 home runs was basically ignored by the media, Rivera's journey to 600 saves was nothing compared to Derek Jeter's countdown to 3,000 hits.
Is 600 saves a big deal... ABSOLUTELY!


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Saturday, October 1, 2011

4 Reasons Why the Cleveland Indians Shouldn't Make a Major Trade Before the Deadline

By James D. Silver

The Indians are looking to trade for B.J. Upton, who is now with the Tampa Bay Rays. He's a good fielder, which the Cleveland Indians desperately need. However, his hitting right now is already in the sweet spot where most Cleveland Indians reside: around.225. In the past three years he has been consistently below.250, with 50 to 60 RBI's. Nothing to write home about. Is this worth the Indians giving up an A-list prospect? Obviously, no.


Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets wants to stay in the National League, so he isn't available. It sounds like the Atlanta Braves and the San Francisco Giants are leading the way for Beltran.


Notwithstanding what is being said by idiot radio talk show hosts in Cleveland, there are 4 good reasons why the Indians shouldn't make a trade before the deadline this year.


Reason 1:
There are a lot more buyers for right handed hitters than sellers, which means in order to get one, the Indians would need to give up more than would be rational. There is just not the availability of players with expiring contracts to fulfill any expectation of a reasonable rent-a-player strategy. Also, so many teams who are contending need the same type of outfielder the Indians are searching for, and if the Indians are smart, they should leave it to others to overpay.


Reason 2:
A rent-a-player strategy only works if you are one or two players away. The Indians aren't. They need 2 outfielders immediately, and if Sizemore and Choo don't start hitting when they return from injuries, they need 2 outfielders permanently. Hitting at 2B and 3B is atrocious. Carlos Santana is not hitting. Lou Marson, a good catcher to have when everyone else on the field can make up for your weakness in hitting, not surprisingly, isn't hitting. Matt LaPorta can fill in blanks. But is he the permanent solution? Yes. In right field if you've got a bunch of.280 hitters elsewhere on the team. So, one player is not the solution, and to give an A list prospect in such a case would be a bad decision.


Reason 3:
Under the reasonable assumption that Marson is an acceptable catcher if the rest of the team hits, and it is known that Santana, while having great potential, is just not making it this year and could use a change of pace, or a hitting instructor he will listen to, then it would be reasonable to trade Santana for an A-list player from a non-contending team, perhaps someone who is overpaid and in the last few years of a contract. However, the luck of the draw is that there is no such candidate available this year.


Reason 4:
Next Year. Really. Two really good young pitchers will be ready for 2012, adding to a pitching staff that is pretty good already. Kipnis and Chis enhall will be anchoring 2B and 3B for years to come. Maybe pick up someone in free agency. Then all of a sudden, a team which has had a taste of winning this year, can have a serious prospect of competing next year.


Upshot:
While many fans will protest, the Indians should not making any major deal before the deadline. Play with what you've got, and the reality is the team will end up 3rd or 4th in a highly competitive division. This is OK, because in 2012, the Indians will be the team to beat in that division.


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